16 February 2020 Instability index at 2.38 | Code Red, High-Risk Zone

The MEA Risk instability index for the week ending 16 February 2020 was 2.38, indicating the country is a High-Risk Zone, largely as a result of the intense violence in the northeast and in bandit activity in central and northwest Nigeria. The index measures the...

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From our Analysts

Commentaries and views from Nigeria analysts

Arezki Daoud
Lead Analyst

Borno’s capital Maiduguri under siege: Boko Haram wants its fall

Download the MP3 file Keeping and protecting the northeastern city of Maiduguri is likely to be a major test for the Buhari administration over the coming months.  Over the past weeks, there has been increasing evidence that Boko Haram and the Islamic State active in the region known as ISWAP have been chipping away slowly but surely at the presence of the Nigerian government, degrading its military positions, but also inflicting misery to the local populations to push for a rebellion, with the ultimate goal is to see the government exit Maiduguri.  This is not likely going to happen, but...

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Presidency and Nigerian army on the defensive over ineffective anti-Boko Haram campaign

President Buhari and the Nigerian military have been under intense pressure on the way the war in the northeast is being prosecuted. Criticism about lack of results on the counter-insurgency front has led both the presidency and defense officials to mount a response highlighting the positive achievements of the army. In its media campaign, the Nigerian Army continues to insist that it is winning...

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